no.1

The global economic arena.

1) At the beginning of the year, there are various global and macroeconomic projections published. I reflect on the Global Economic Prospects released by the The World Bank Group due to their accuracy. The global growth is forecasted to slow to 2.6% this year and increase back to 2.7% in 2027 (as in 2025). The predicted upward revisions of the growth rate are due to the stronger-than-expected resilience of the global economy amidst the historically high policy uncertainty.

Also on the positive side, the global inflation level is projected to decrease to 2.6% this year and 2.5% in 2027. On the negative side, I consider the increasing levels of private and public debt in all regions a high risk. While macroeconomic indicators mostly fluctuate together, the economic growth rate alone may not be sufficient for adequate decision-making. I highly recommend also looking at the inflation and debt levels. I even take into consideration employment, interest rate, trade, and exchange rate figures when making analyses. All of them are expected to continue deteriorating this year. With all this in mind, my advice to business leaders is to remain cautious and attentive to policy uncertainties in the next six months. 

2) Next week, all eyes on Davos, the Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum. This year’s theme, ‘A Spirit of Dialogue,’ resonates with me because it underlines the importance of breaking silos. Having attended past years’ editions, I always find it a great way to learn about and share the latest, most forward-looking ideas, while networking. Next Thursday, I will speak about the practical use of strategic foresight for city development and urban planning in the ‘spirit of innovation and cooperation among stakeholders’. I will keep you informed about the Davos spirit and my speech.